M/Ph2dZddlZddlZ ddZ ddZdS)zC Initialization methods for states of exponential smoothing models NFct|}d}d}||s8|d}|dkr|d|dz }n|dkr|d|dz }n|d|zkrtdtj|d|}|}|Gt j|||d|z|z }|dkr|d||z }n|dkr |d||z }|||fS)NraddmullCannot compute initial seasonals using heuristic method with less than two full seasonal cycles in the data.)len ValueErrornpmeanpdSeriesdiff) endogtrendseasonalseasonal_periodsnobs initial_trendinitial_seasonal initial_levelms t/var/www/html/test/jupyter/venv/lib/python3.11/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/exponential_smoothing/initialization.py_initialization_simpler sC u::DMxa E>>!!HuQx/MM e^^!!HuQx/M !&& & &=>> >&7'7&7 899   Yu--22155aAg>BHHJJM u  $RaRy=8     $RaRy=8  -)9 99c |}t|}|dkrtdd}|r|d|zkrtddd|dzzz}||krtdtd||z}t |t t j||z }tj |d||z}| |d } |dzd kr:| d  d } |d kr|| z } n |d kr|| z } t j ||zt jz} | j| dt| <t j| ||jd }|d kr|t j |z}n|d kr|t j |z}| j}t jt jdt jdd zf} |jd krt j|j}t jt j| |dd} | d }d} |d kr | d } n|d krd | d | d z z} || |fS)N z;Cannot use heuristic method with less than 10 observations.rrz~Cannot use heuristic method to compute initial seasonal and levels with less than 10 + 2 * (seasonal_periods // 2) datapoints.T)centerrrrr)axis)copyr r minmaxintr ceilr rrollingr shiftzerosnanvaluesnanmeanreshapeTdropnac_onesarangendim atleast_2dsqueezelinalgpinvdot)rrrrrrmin_obsk_cyclesseriesr detrendedtmpexogbetars r_initialization_heuristicr@,s" JJLLE u::D byy*++ +1. !&& & &=>> >q,122 '>>,-- -q$"2233xRWW7G-G%H%H!I!IJJ5!="2X"=!=>??'7EEJJLL a 1 $ $)//33;;A>>CCEEM u  .II   .Ihx"2233bf<(/OS^^O: KK"2 3 3 5A??? u   (8 9 9 9      (8 9 9 9 $$&&- 5bimma// 0D zQ e$$& :binnT**..uSbSz:: ; ;DGMM ~~Q %DGd1g-- -)9 99r)FFN)__doc__numpyr pandasr rr@rrrEss9>,0 : : : :F